A new survey has put a long political streak in jeopardy just weeks before voters choose their next governor.<\/p>\n
The apparent lead is narrow, but frustration with state leadership may be the larger warning sign.<\/p>\n
In Oregon, Republican gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan narrowly leads incumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek in a rematch of their 2022 race.<\/p>\n
A poll commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting places Drazan at 47% and Kotek at 46% after undecided voters were pressed.<\/p>\n
Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith received 3%, while 4% remained undecided after that follow-up question.<\/p>\n
The one-point advantage is within the survey\u2019s 3.24-point margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.<\/p>\n
Before undecided voters were pressed, Drazan led 46% to 44%, with Smith at 3% and 8% undecided.<\/p>\n
DHM Research surveyed 915 likely voters between September 17 and 27 by telephone and text-linked online forms.<\/p>\n
The election is scheduled for November 3, leaving the campaigns little time to move a close electorate.<\/p>\n
A Drazan victory would make her Oregon\u2019s first Republican governor since Victor Atiyeh won reelection in 1982.<\/p>\n
Atiyeh served from 1979 to 1987, and Democrats have held the governor\u2019s office since his departure.<\/p>\n
The significance reaches beyond one office in a state that has voted reliably Democratic in presidential elections.<\/p>\n
No Republican presidential nominee has carried Oregon since Ronald Reagan in 1984.<\/p>\n
Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump there 55% to 41% in 2024, according to the report.<\/p>\n
That history explains why a tied governor\u2019s race commands attention even amid a difficult national environment for Republicans.<\/p>\n
It also means a narrow poll lead should not be treated as a forecast of victory.<\/p>\n
Oregon Republicans have seen that danger before in this very matchup.<\/p>\n
Drazan led some polls late in 2022, but Kotek won the three-way contest by roughly three and a half points.<\/p>\n
That race included conservative Democrat Betsy Johnson, who is absent from this year\u2019s ballot.<\/p>\n
The current rematch gives voters a different contest without Johnson in the field.<\/p>\n
The new survey also shows widespread dissatisfaction with where the state is headed.<\/p>\n
Only 29% of likely voters said Oregon was moving in the right direction, while 58% said it was not.<\/p>\n
Nearly three in four respondents rated the state\u2019s economy poorly, according to the report.<\/p>\n
When asked for Oregon\u2019s most important problem, voters most often named cost of living, high taxes, and homelessness.<\/p>\n
Poor leadership also drew responses, putting questions of accountability alongside household finances.<\/p>\n
Those concerns are central to Drazan\u2019s critique of Kotek\u2019s record on schools, housing, homelessness, and the economy.<\/p>\n
Kotek has focused heavily on linking Drazan to Trump and his policies.<\/p>\n
The poll found Kotek viewed favorably by 38% of likely voters, just above Trump\u2019s 37%.<\/p>\n
Drazan\u2019s favorability stood at 45%, while an equal share viewed her unfavorably.<\/p>\n
The results suggest neither major candidate can assume broad approval beyond a committed base.<\/p>\n
In the Portland metro area, Kotek drew 54% support, below the roughly 61% she won there in 2022.<\/p>\n
Drazan reached 40% in that region and led elsewhere in the state, according to OPB\u2019s breakdown.<\/p>\n
Those numbers make the metropolitan vote particularly consequential to the governor\u2019s reelection effort.<\/p>\n
A campaign consultant for Drazan said voters were frustrated with Kotek and interested in the Republican\u2019s policy proposals.<\/p>\n
Kotek\u2019s campaign countered that Drazan would open the door to Trump\u2019s agenda and federal policies it opposes.<\/p>\n
Their competing messages show how the race pits the governor\u2019s state record against national partisan concerns.<\/p>\n
The survey found 44% preferred a conservative governor on economic issues, compared with 32% favoring a liberal governor.<\/p>\n
On social issues, 42% preferred a liberal approach and 37% preferred a conservative one.<\/p>\n